Is The Gulf Stream About To Collapse?

Case 99E972D9-1BB3-4AC4-94CA-066AA0C811A2

  • Status

    State
    Next Steps
    Case Date
    Jurors Accepted
    Juror Verdicts Finalized

    The details, verdicts, and comments within this case record come from its participants. The Court's role is solely to facilitate the case process.

    Copyright © 2022-2024 Bright Plaza, Inc., All Rights Reserved. No one may publish a case, or any part of it, without a clear reference to the link with the case number as in https://www.truthcourt.net/case/<case-id-number>

  • Details

    Name
    Category
    URL
    Markup
    Lie Truth
     
    Accusation

  • Verdicts

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 30 %
    Supporting Text:
    This statement is mostly true within the parameters of the study from which it emerged. The study concludes that there is a risk of the AMOC collapsing between 2025 and 2095. Picking the central estimate of 2057 seems rather arbitrary.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I do think that their estimate is possibly true and should be concerning. The underlying reasoning is very credible.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 40 %
    Supporting Text:
    The Gulf Stream/AMOC has only been properly measured since 2004. It is found to be slowing down. But "collapse" in 2020-2095 is too strong a statement. We can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial lAmoc is also only one part of the wider Gulf Stream system, much of which is driven by winds that will continue to blow even if the Amoc collapses. So part of the Gulf Stream will survive an Amoc collapse.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 40 %
    Supporting Text:
    There are valid facts in the claim but the conclusion about the timescale for impact on the Gulf stream seems to overstated.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 25 %
    Supporting Text:
    Collapse of the AMOC would be devastating, so it's worth considering this statement at face value. Still, I think there are too many variables which make this statement problematic.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I do think the study is credible and credible in how it is treating the data. It is transparent as it should be.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 60 %
    Supporting Text:
    When predicting complex systems with sophisticated mathematics but sparse date, it is essential to list the assumptions made. Unfortunately newspapers cannot assess those. And so we are left with disagreement among experts. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report addressed this issue specifically, and found that based on model projections and theoretical understanding, the Gulf Stream will not shut down in a warming climate.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 70 %
    Supporting Text:
    Collapse of the AMOC would be devastating, so it's worth considering this statement at face value. Still, I think there are too many variables which make this statement problematic.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 20 %
    Supporting Text:
    While the range of times in which this collapse could possibly happen does include the mid-21st-century, it also extends to the beginning of the 22nd century, Many scientists think the likelihood of AMOC collapse is not as eminent as the study concludes.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    again, pretty satisfactory. This appears to be a reasonable concern.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 20 %
    Supporting Text:
    While the range of times in which this collapse could possibly happen does include the mid-21st-century, it also extends to the beginning of the 22nd century, Many scientists think the likelihood of AMOC collapse is not as eminent as the study concludes.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 30 %
    Supporting Text:
    While the range of times in which this collapse could possibly happen does include the mid-21st-century, it also extends to the beginning of the 22nd century, Many scientists think the likelihood of AMOC collapse is not as eminent as the study concludes.

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the Gulf Stream could collapse in twenty-five to thirty years.
    Answer Confidence: 25 %
    Supporting Text:
    There is factual reason to be concerned, but this statement's timeline doesn't seem to be right.

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the Gulf Stream could collapse in twenty-five to thirty years.
    Answer Confidence: 5 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    There is no deceit.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the lie is misleading.
    Answer Confidence: 75 %
    Supporting Text:
    A transition of the AMOC is most likely to occur around 2025-2095  (95% confidence interval), they say. Why don't they show us the probability graph over that period?

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the current models and science can reliably forecast the behavior of these oceans currents.
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    Not enough data points yet to model it.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 80 %
    Supporting Text:
    I feel that the conclusion reached by the study is probably apt, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE STUDY, but the design of the study doesn't take into account the predictive model's shortcomings. I'm not convinced that the study considers several other important variables, and setting a collapse date of 2050 is not generally supported by other studies/researchers.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 85 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 80 %
    Supporting Text:
    I feel that the conclusion reached by the study is probably apt, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE STUDY, but the design of the study doesn't take into account the predictive model's shortcomings. I'm not convinced that the study considers several other important variables, and setting a collapse date of 2050 is not generally supported by other studies/researchers.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 80 %
    Supporting Text:
    I feel that the conclusion reached by the study is probably apt, WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE STUDY, but the design of the study doesn't take into account the predictive model's shortcomings. I'm not convinced that the study considers several other important variables, and setting a collapse date of 2050 is not generally supported by other studies/researchers.

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 30 %
    Supporting Text:
    The findings of this study need to be contextualized and the deficiencies of the model used to make the prediction need to be factored into the results..

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 75 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 70 %
    Supporting Text:
    Seems not unreasonable.

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 30 %
    Supporting Text:
    The findings of this study need to be contextualized and the deficiencies of the model used to make the prediction need to be factored into the results..

    Answer:
    I'm not sure what the motivation is.
    Answer Confidence: 30 %
    Supporting Text:
    The intent could be to raise awareness about the issue but overstating the case could be counterproductive in the face of climate deniers and climate doomers.

    Answer: Unacceptable
    Answer Confidence: 25 %
    Supporting Text:
    Because of the relatively near collapse date, this study might be dismissed as climate doomerism, which would detract from the real climate disaster we are facing.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Acceptable
    Answer Confidence: 85 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Unacceptable
    Answer Confidence: 25 %
    Supporting Text:
    Because of the relatively near collapse date, this study might be dismissed as climate doomerism, which would detract from the real climate disaster we are facing.

    Answer: Unacceptable
    Answer Confidence: 60 %
    Supporting Text:
    Because of the relatively near collapse date, this study might be dismissed as climate doomerism, which would detract from the real climate disaster we are facing.

    Answer:
    This conclusion was drawn by a narrow appraisal of the facts surrounding the possible collapse of the AMOC, and consequently sets a much earlier date for this this collapse than other climate scientists who have also studied this possibility.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    This collapse is a very real possibility, and --if it happens -- would have disastrous results. I don't quarrel with the fact that this is very possible. I think the timeline is too aggressive and not in line with other research.

    Answer:
    No label needed
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    No label needed
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    No label. The fundamentals are not wrong. It is right to be concerned. A total collapse would at least refrigerate the NE and EU.

    Answer:
    This conclusion was drawn by a narrow appraisal of the facts surrounding the possible collapse of the AMOC, and consequently sets a much earlier date for this this collapse than other climate scientists who have also studied this possibility.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    This collapse is a very real possibility, and --if it happens -- would have disastrous results. I don't quarrel with the fact that this is very possible. I think the timeline is too aggressive and not in line with other research.

    Answer:
    Gulf stream predictions need further study to accurately forecast collapse
    Answer Confidence: 70 %
    Supporting Text: