Economist Predictions

Case A2BCD592-5969-4D3A-BE52-A9BF6079A82E
Sponsor: Robert Thibadeau

  • Status

    State
    Next Steps
    Case Date
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    Jurors Accepted
    Juror Verdicts Finalized

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  • Details

    Name
    Category
    URL
    Accusation
    Lie Truth
     
    Argument

  • Verdicts

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 80 %
    Supporting Text:
    I know enough about economics to know what he is talking about and that what he claims about the economic indicators is right. We headed by hyperinflation in the next few months followed by demand collapse (due to high prices), followed by a probably depression (stock market crashes).

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    No one can predict what's going to happen. Very few people get it right.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    The consensus is that US GDP is strong and consumer Demand is healthy. It’s just as likely that oil prices will not move too much. China has so much solar power installed and coal fired power stations that it is less interested in oil. While Foreign countries have been selling US treasuries causing the rising yield the productivity figures suggest the deficient can be paid for. Since Thé economy has shifted towards asset owning, inflation will benefit the top tier. And private hidden debt markets will not apply pressure in banks to raise rates on loans. So maybe not such a danger after all.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I think the US is indeed headed towards inflation and depression, but I am not sure how devastating it will be or how much the rest of the world will be affected.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    Maybe? So what's the solution? BTC?

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    The overwhelming consensus among professional economic institutions does not point to an inescapable depression. For instance, U.S. Bank recently placed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at only 25%, noting a stable labor market and resilient consumer spending.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I don't anything he missed.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    If it was the whole truth, then the evidence would be too obvious. The accusation is false.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    Okay?

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Inflation is Stabilizing: Rather than spiraling into terrible territory, long-term projections from Trading Economics anticipate inflation trending downward toward 2.5% to 2.6% over the coming years.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 80 %
    Supporting Text:
    This appears to be mainline economics to me. He mentions many times there is more detail that he is not covering to keep it short.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    Too many people predict the end is coming.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Grok is fairly dismissive of Max. I like his podcast title but maybe he thinks he can do more than he can. The FED doesn’t seem very concerned with its mini rate hike. But maybe they don’t want to scare everybody.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    It seems like kind of a serious topic to just not provide every source possible.

    Answer: No
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    There is no deceit.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    In other of his YouTube's I've worried about why he is saying what he is saying, but this article is asserting specific testable predictions within a year, and why and the asserts there is nothing now we can do about it.

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the lie is manipulating.
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    Grok is not perfect.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    The deceit is that although this is true, we don't know exactly how bad the inflation and depression will be, or how widespread in the world.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    There is no deceit.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    ????
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    Okay?

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the lie is manipulating.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Per Gemini: The Harm of Panic: Accepting this claim as absolute truth is actively dangerous for collective well-being. If businesses and consumers believe a depression is inescapable, they will predictably hoard resources, slash investments, and halt hiring. This panic-driven behavior creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, triggering the exact economic collapse and widespread joblessness the prediction fears, ultimately maximizing societal harm rather than averting it.

    Answer:
    The deceit is that the lie is manipulating.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Yes, I believe he intends the truth and is telling it.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    I think someone is trying to cause panic and create opportunities for the wealthy to become wealthier.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I follow the plaintiff here.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    He believes this is true and he intends to inform. To what purpose, I am not sure. He is not advocating for us to do anything to prevent this, because he believes nothing can be done.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Truth is intended

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Yes, I believe he intends the truth and is telling it.

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Yes
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I think he was sincere when he said he wasn't planning to do this YouTube but has concluded that he had to in order to give as many people as possible a way to save themselves. (e.g., if inflation starts to spiral up as predicted, get out of stocks because there will be a hard crash coming).

    Answer:
    The motivation is to convince you that the lie is factually true.
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    I'm not sure what the motivation is.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    There is so much investment tied up in the AI bubble that a crash simply would not be allowable.

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    The motivation is to be informative
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    I'm not sure what the motivation is.
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    Does anybody else agree with his conclusions or is he a lone voice in the wilderness?

    Answer:
    I'm not sure what the motivation is.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    I'm not sure what the motivation is.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Acceptable
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Since he explains his reasoning it is always acceptable.

    Answer: Unacceptable
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:
    The accusation is false.

    Answer: Acceptable
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    I think Max is saying what people want to believe. MArket pundits having been warning about a crash for nigh on two years. It’s not here yet.

    Answer: Acceptable
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    It is acceptable to share one's view of where the US economy is heading.

    Answer: Acceptable
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    Since he explains his reasoning it is always acceptable.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:
    Focusing on extreme worst-case scenarios can sometimes serve a practical purpose by acting as an aggressive alarm bell. It can pressure policymakers into taking drastic, necessary actions to stabilize the economy, thereby preventing the widespread poverty and suffering a depression would cause.

    Answer: Don't Know
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    A Prediction that is True but can't Yet be Proven
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    This is factually untrue.
    Answer Confidence: 100 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    A prediction is a prediction. Given the business cycle a crash will come eventually. How many years ahead before the crash can we give Max and say he was right.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    A prediction that is very likely to come true but cannot be proven yet.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    No label needed
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    This is his opinion
    Answer Confidence: 50 %
    Supporting Text:
    There's no such thing as a prediction that's true but just hasn't been proven true yet. You can't have truth that just hasn't happened yet. That's called prophecy.

    Answer:
    This is factually untrue.
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text:

    Answer:
    No label needed
    Answer Confidence: 90 %
    Supporting Text: